Unemployment fell to 3.7 percent in April
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
The share of unemployed persons (according to the methodology of the MLSA) fell from 3.9% to 3.74% in April, which was in line with analysts' estimates. Traditionally, unemployment decreases with the arrival of the spring months due to the start of seasonal work. However, this year - despite the unseasonably warm weather which has allowed seasonal work to start earlier - unemployment has fallen more slowly than would be consistent with the traditional trend of earlier years. As a result, the share of unemployed persons fell only very slightly and less than is consistent with traditional seasonality (Chart 1). The seasonally adjusted share of unemployed persons has been rising slightly since the end of last year, and increased cosmetically in April (Chart 2).
The number of job seekers fell by 8,500 to 280,000 in April. However, the month-on-month decline was less than the traditional April trend (Chart 3). Looking back at the specific pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, the decline in the number of applicants this April is the weakest since 2009, when it rose slightly. Between 2016 and 2019, the average decline in the number of applicants in April was 24,000. In terms of seasonally adjusted numbers, the number of applicants rose by just under 1% month-on-month, the same as in March, and month-on-month growth has continued steadily since last September.
The number of job vacancies was broadly flat, or slightly down, at 268,000, and is down 5.8% year-on-year. Although the credibility of this statistic is sometimes questioned and the absolute figures themselves should be viewed with some caution, the trend in job vacancies also suggests a slight cooling of the labour market, as seasonally adjusted vacancies have been falling month-on-month since last December, although they were only flat in April.
While the domestic labour market remains in a state where many employers are struggling to find suitable employees, there have been some signs of cooling in recent quarters and this trend is likely to continue for the rest of this year. According to the European Commission's leading indicators, firms in industry and services plan to reduce employment in the coming months, while employment in retail and construction is expected to grow (Chart 4). The new CBA forecast expects the share of unemployed persons to rise to 3.8% this year (similar to the CNB or Ministry of Finance forecast). However, this is still lower than what was observed in 2017, when the domestic labour market was already starting to show signs of overheating (Chart 5).
Percentage of unemployed persons 15-16 (MPSV) in %
Seasonally adjusted share of unemployed persons (%)
Seasonal monthly changes in the number of jobseekers (thousands)
Employment expectations in the next 3 months
