Unemployment rises to 3.7 % in December
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
The share of unemployed persons (according to the MoLSA methodology) rose from 3.5 % to 3.7 % in December, which was in line with analysts' expectations. Traditionally, unemployment rises with the arrival of the winter months, as some work, for example in the construction sector, has to be terminated. The development in December 2023 is thus in line with normal seasonality (Chart 1) and the share of unemployed persons was at the same level in December 2023 as in December 2022. In seasonally adjusted terms, the share of unemployed persons has been broadly flat at 3.6 % since the end of 2022 (Chart 2).
Despite the domestic economy going through a mild recession for 2023 and economic activity ultimately being behind expectations, this has had a very limited impact on the labour market, with staff shortages again starting to be cited more frequently by firms as a barrier to their continued growth during 2023 (Chart 3).
Thus, the domestic labour market remains depleted, with the share of unemployed persons reaching 3.6 % for the full year 2023, only a slight increase compared to the previous year. The latest CNB forecast expects an increase to 4.1 % this year, while the CBA forecast is for 3.8 %. In both cases, however, this is still a relatively modest increase and below the level of 2017, when the domestic labour market was already showing signs of overheating (Chart 4).
The traditional definition of unemployment - the headline unemployment rate - for November 2023, according to the CZSO figures released today, reached 2.6 %, correcting the surprising October rise to 2.9 %. For the whole of 2023, it is now 2.7 %, 0.2 pp higher than in the same period of 2022. In 2019, it was 2.1 %.
Despite the domestic economy going through a mild recession for 2023 and economic activity ultimately being behind expectations, this has had a very limited impact on the labour market, with staff shortages again starting to be cited more frequently by firms as a barrier to their continued growth during 2023 (Chart 3).
Thus, the domestic labour market remains depleted, with the share of unemployed persons reaching 3.6 % for the full year 2023, only a slight increase compared to the previous year. The latest CNB forecast expects an increase to 4.1 % this year, while the CBA forecast is for 3.8 %. In both cases, however, this is still a relatively modest increase and below the level of 2017, when the domestic labour market was already showing signs of overheating (Chart 4).
The traditional definition of unemployment - the headline unemployment rate - for November 2023, according to the CZSO figures released today, reached 2.6 %, correcting the surprising October rise to 2.9 %. For the whole of 2023, it is now 2.7 %, 0.2 pp higher than in the same period of 2022. In 2019, it was 2.1 %.
Disclaimer: Text translated automatically, excuse any imperfections.