The CBA forecast is produced each quarter as a consensus forecast of selected domestic banks. A basic summary of the current CBA forecast in several figures and comments is outlined below, detailed information can be found in the "CBA Forecast" section.
GDP
0% yoy
year 2025 | 2026
The domestic economy is expected to accelerate to 2.1% this year and further to 2.4% year-on-year next year after 1% growth last year.
Unemployment
0%
year 2025 | 2026
We expect unemployment to rise slightly to 4.1% this year from 3.8% in 2024, with the expectation that it will stabilise at 4% next year.
Average wages
0%
year 2025 | 2026
We expect unemployment to rise slightly to 4.1% this year from 3.8% in 2024, with the expectation that it will stabilise at 4% next year. Real wage growth should average 3% this year and next.
Inflation
0% yoy
year 2025 | 2026
Consumer price growth should repeat its 2.4% performance last year and we expect it to slow slightly further to 2.2% year-on-year next year.
CNB 2-week repo rate
0%
end of 2025
The CNB will continue with a gradual cut in the 2-week repo rate, but the risks are skewed towards a slower cut.
The Crown
0CZK/€
end of 2025
By the end of next year, the Czech koruna is expected to strengthen against the euro by nearly 2%, reaching around 24.7 CZK per euro. A potential risk to this outlook is the possibility of a more pronounced, long-term strengthening of the U.S. dollar against the euro.
The domestic economy will grow by 2.1% this year, according to the CBA's macroeconomic forecast. The outlook is significantly affected by uncertainty about the onset of trade wars. In the baseline scenario, we expect consumer prices to grow by a similar annual rate of 2.4% this year as last year, with only a slight slowdown to 2.2% in 2026. The CNB's interest rates are likely to continue to fall gradually, with the two-week repo rate reaching 3.25% this year and 3% next year.