The domestic economy would grow by 1% year on year this year, similar to the value expected in the previous forecast. GDP is forecast to accelerate by 2.3% next year. Compared to the previous forecast, the estimate for 2025 has been revised downwards by almost half a percentage point, mainly due to weaker developments abroad.
CBA Forecast
The CBA forecast is produced each quarter as a consensus forecast of selected domestic banks. A basic summary of the current CBA forecast in several figures and comments is outlined below, detailed information can be found in the "CBA Forecast" section.
GDP
0
% yoy
year 2024
Domestic economy to grow only slightly by 1% this year, 2.3% next year
Unemployment
0
%
average in 2025
The labour market remains taight, although slight signs of cooling can already be seen. However, the share of unemployed persons will increase only slightly next year
Average wages
0
%
average in 2024
Average wages are expected to rise by 6.6% this year and real wages will increase again after two years by 4.1%
Inflation
0
%
average in 2024
Average inflation is expected to reach 2.4% this year and 2.5% next year. Risks remain in food and services prices
CNB 2-week repo rate
0
%
end of 2025
The forecast anticipates continued rate cuts by the Czech National Bank next year, with no further changes likely this year. By the end of 2025, the rate is expected to stand at 3.25%
The Crown
0
CZK/€
end of 2025
By the end of next year, the Czech koruna is expected to strengthen against the euro by nearly 2%, reaching around 24.7 CZK per euro. A potential risk to this outlook is the possibility of a more pronounced, long-term strengthening of the U.S. dollar against the euro.
The Czech economy will grow by 1% year-on-year this year, with GDP forecast to accelerate by 2.3% next year. Compared to the previous forecast, the estimate for 2025 has been revised downwards by almost half a percentage point, mainly due to weaker developments abroad.
November 2024: Domestic economic growth will be moderate this year, targets just above 2% next year, but slower than expected in the August forecast
The domestic economy will grow more slowly than expected this year. Annual growth will be 0.9%, down half a percentage point from the May forecast. The weaker development is linked to the unfavourable outlook for foreign demand.
The domestic economy will grow more slowly than expected this year. Annual growth will be 0.9%, down half a percentage point from the May forecast. The weaker development is linked to the unfavourable outlook for foreign demand. In the next episode, we will interview economist Jaromír Šindel.
August 2024: Growth of the domestic economy will be weaker this year, the optimistic expectations from the previous forecast have not been met
Economic commentary by Jakub Seidler, Chief Economist of the CBA
May 2024: This year's recovery will be gradual, growth should accelerate next year, inflation will remain at the central bank's 2% target this year and next
February 2024: The domestic economy will recover slowly this year. Growth expected to be only 1.2%, inflation close to central bank's target