CBA Monitor is an interactive and quick overview of information on the development of the economy and the banking sector in the Czech Republic, accompanied by comments from CBA experts.
The domestic economy would grow by 1% year on year this year, similar to the value expected in the previous forecast. GDP is forecast to accelerate by 2.3% next year. Compared to the previous forecast, the estimate for 2025 has been revised downwards by almost half a percentage point, mainly due to weaker developments abroad.
The Czech economy will grow by 1% year-on-year this year, with GDP forecast to accelerate by 2.3% next year. Compared to the previous forecast, the estimate for 2025 has been revised downwards by almost half a percentage point, mainly due to weaker developments abroad.
The CBA forecast is produced each quarter as a consensus forecast of selected domestic banks. A basic summary of the current CBA forecast in several figures and comments is outlined below, detailed information can be found in the
„CBA Forecast“ section.
GDP
0% yoy
year 2024
Domestic economy to grow only slightly by 1% this year, 2.3% next year
Unemployment
0%
average in 2025
The labour market remains taight, although slight signs of cooling can already be seen. However, the share of unemployed persons will increase only slightly next year
Average wages
0%
average in 2024
Average wages are expected to rise by 6.6% this year and real wages will increase again after two years by 4.1%
Inflation
0%
average in 2024
Average inflation is expected to reach 2.4% this year and 2.5% next year. Risks remain in food and services prices
CNB 2-week repo rate
0%
end of 2025
The forecast anticipates continued rate cuts by the Czech National Bank next year, with no further changes likely this year. By the end of 2025, the rate is expected to stand at 3.25%
The Crown
0CZK/€
end of 2025
By the end of next year, the Czech koruna is expected to strengthen against the euro by nearly 2%, reaching around 24.7 CZK per euro. A potential risk to this outlook is the possibility of a more pronounced, long-term strengthening of the U.S. dollar against the euro.
Jakub Seidler Chief Economist CBA
He studied economics at the Institute of Economic Studies of Charles University in Prague, where he also obtained his PhD. During his time at the central bank, he attended a number of courses on econometrics, financial stability and monetary policy at international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the ECB and the Bank of England.
He started his career in 2008 at the Czech National Bank, where he worked for six years in various professional positions in the Financial Stability, Research and Monetary Departments. Later, as Head of the Macroprudential Policy Department, he was mainly responsible for conducting banking sector stress tests and financial stability analysis. Since 2018, he has also held the position of Deputy Chairman of the Budget Forecast Committee assessing the objectivity of the Ministry of Finance's forecasts. From 2014 to 2021, he served as ING Bank's Chief Economist for the Czech Republic.
