CBA Monitor is an interactive and quick overview of information on the development of the economy and the banking sector in the Czech Republic, accompanied by comments from CBA experts.
The domestic economy will grow by 2.1% this year, according to the CBA's macroeconomic forecast. The outlook is significantly affected by uncertainty about the onset of trade wars. In the baseline scenario, we expect consumer prices to grow by a similar annual rate of 2.4% this year as last year, with only a slight slowdown to 2.2% in 2026. The CNB's interest rates are likely to continue to fall gradually, with the two-week repo rate reaching 3.25% this year and 3% next year.
The CBA forecast is produced each quarter as a consensus forecast of selected domestic banks. A basic summary of the current CBA forecast in several figures and comments is outlined below, detailed information can be found in the
„CBA Forecast“ section.
GDP
0% yoy
year 2025 | 2026
The domestic economy is expected to accelerate to 2.1% this year and further to 2.4% year-on-year next year after 1% growth last year.
Unemployment
0%
year 2025 | 2026
We expect unemployment to rise slightly to 4.1% this year from 3.8% in 2024, with the expectation that it will stabilise at 4% next year.
Average wages
0%
year 2025 | 2026
We expect unemployment to rise slightly to 4.1% this year from 3.8% in 2024, with the expectation that it will stabilise at 4% next year. Real wage growth should average 3% this year and next.
Inflation
0% yoy
year 2025 | 2026
Consumer price growth should repeat its 2.4% performance last year and we expect it to slow slightly further to 2.2% year-on-year next year.
CNB 2-week repo rate
0%
end of 2025
The CNB will continue with a gradual cut in the 2-week repo rate, but the risks are skewed towards a slower cut.
The Crown
0CZK/€
end of 2025
By the end of next year, the Czech koruna is expected to strengthen against the euro by nearly 2%, reaching around 24.7 CZK per euro. A potential risk to this outlook is the possibility of a more pronounced, long-term strengthening of the U.S. dollar against the euro.
Jaromír Šindel Chief Economist CBA
Jaromír Šindel is the Chief Economist of the Czech Banking Association, where he uses his extensive experience in the field of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. Prior to that, he worked for more than 17 years as the Chief Economist at Citibank. In 1999 - 2004, he received a master’s degree from the University of Economics Prague with a major in economic policy and continued to focus on this field during his doctoral studies, which he completed in 2011.
During his time at Citibank (2007-2024), he worked mainly on macroeconomic analysis with a focus on economic trends in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia. He prepared forecasts of economic developments and economic policy, including the impact on financial markets. Related to this, he also monitored global economic and political trends and their impact on the local economic situation.
